Email this article Effect of climatic factors like rainfall, humidity and temperature on the dengue cases in the metropolitan city of Maharashtra
Abstract
Background: Climatic factors may influence the dengue cases in the given geographical area indicating the need of research on it. The research in India, especially Maharashtra is however scarce. Thus a study on climatic factors and dengue cases was planned in metropolitan city of Maharashtra. Objective was to study the effect of climatic factors like rainfall, humidity and temperature on the dengue incidence.
Methods: Retrospective study design was commissioned at tertiary care hospital in the city. The reported DF/DHF cases during January 2009 to December 2018 were mobilised from Integrated Disease Surveillance Project (IDSP) of Epidemiology cell, Mumbai. Climate records were gathered from meteorology department of the city. Data were entered on the Excel sheet. The analysis was done with SPSS version 22.0.
Results: The dengue incidence was high in monsoon and post monsoon season. Both rainfall and humidity were positively and temperature was negatively associated with dengue incidence.
Conclusions: Climatic factors are the best predictors of dengue cases in near future. Weather factors based early warning systems may be incorporated in the routine surveillance system for dengue for preventing the epidemic.
Keywords
Full Text:
PDFReferences
WHO fact sheet. Dengue and severe dengue. Available at https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/dengue-and-severe-dengue. Accessed on 20 July 2020.
Chakravarti A, Arora R, Luxemburger C. Fifty years of dengue in India. Transact Royal Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2012;106(5):273-82.
Country Office for India, World Health Organization. 2015. National guidelines for clinical management of dengue fever. WHO Country Office for India. Available at https://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/208893. Accessed on 3 February 2018.
Tseng WC, Chen CC, Chang CC, Chu YH. Estimating the economic impacts of climate change on infectious diseases: a case study on dengue fever in Taiwan. Clim Change. 2009;92(1-2):123-40.
Hii YL, Zaki RA, Aghamohammadi N, Rocklov J. Research on climate and dengue in Malaysia: a systematic review. Curr Environ Health Rep. 2016;3(1):81-90.
Mutheneni SR, Morse AP, Caminade C, Upadhyayula SM. Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters. Emerg Microbes Infect. 2017;6(1):1-10.
Kakarla SG, Caminade C, Mutheneni SR, Morse AP, Upadhyayula SM, Kadiri MR, et al. Lag effect of climatic variables on dengue burden in India. Epidemiol Infect. 2019;147(e170):1-10.
Ramachandran VG, Roy P, Das S, Mogha NS, Bansal AK. Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi. Epidemiol Health. 2016;38:e2016052.
Mala S, Jat MK. Implications of meteorological and physiographical parameters on dengue fever occurrences in Delhi. Sci Total Environ. 2019;650:2267-83.
Pakhare A, Sabde Y, Joshi A, Jain R, Kokane A, Joshi R. A study of spatial and meteorological determinants of dengue outbreak in Bhopal City in 2014. J Vector Borne Dis. 2016;53(3):225-33.
Xu Z, Bambrick H, Frentiu FD, Devine G, Yakob L, Williams G, et al. Projecting the future of dengue under climate change scenarios: Progress, uncertainties and research needs. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2020;14(3):e0008118.
Naish S, Dale P, Mackenzie JS, McBride J, Mengersen K, Tong S. Climate change and dengue: A critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches. BMC Infect Dis. 2014;14(1).
Bal S, Sodoudi S. Modeling and prediction of dengue occurrences in Kolkata, India, based on climate factors. Int J Biometeorol. 2020;64(8):1379-91.
Chuang TW, Chaves LF, Chen PJ. Effects of local and regional climatic fluctuations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan. PLoS One. 2017;12(6):e0178698.
Shastri J, Williamson M, Vaidya N, Agrawal SO. Nine years trends of dengue virus infection in Mumbai, Western India. J Lab Phys. 2017;9(3):296-302.
Victor TJ, Malathi M, Asokan R, Padmanaban P. Laboratory-based dengue fever surveillance in Tamil Nadu, India T. Indian J Med Res. 2007;126:112-5.
Tosepu R, Tantrakarnapa K, Nakhapakorn K, Worakhunpiset S. Climate variability and dengue hemorrhagic fever in Southeast Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2018;25(15):14944-52.
Lee HS, Nguyen-Viet H, Nam VS, Lee M, Won S, Duc PP, et al. Seasonal patterns of dengue fever and associated climate factors in 4 provinces in Vietnam from 1994 to 2013. BMC Infect Dis. 2017;17(1).
Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Dengue Cases and Deaths in the Country since 2009. Delhi India; 2015. Available at http;//www.nvbdcp.gov.in/den.cd.html. Accessed on 20 July 2020.
Dengue/DHF Situation in India from 2014: National Vector Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). 2018. Available at https://nvbdcp.gov.in/index4.php?lang=1&level=0&linkid=431&lid=3715. Accessed on 12 August 2020.
Williams CR, Mincham G, Faddy H, Viennet E, Ritchie SA, Harley D. Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change. Epidemiol Infect. 2016;144(14):3091-100.
Choi Y, Tang CS, McIver L, Hashizume M, Chan V, Abeyasinghe RR, et al. Effects of weather factors on dengue fever incidence and implications for interventions in Cambodia. BMC Public Health. 2016;16(1).
Tuladhar R, Singh A, Varma A, Choudhary DK. Climatic factors influencing dengue incidence in an epidemic area of Nepal. BMC Res Notes. 2019;12(1).
Sirisena P, Noordeen F, Kurukulasuriya H, Romesh TA, Fernando LK. Effect of climatic factors and population density on the distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS based evaluation for prediction of outbreaks. PLoS One. 2017;12(1).
Gharbi M, Quenel P, Gustave J, Cassadou S, La Ruche G, Girdary L, et al. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: forecasting models using climate variables as predictors. BMC Infect Dis. 2011;11:166.
Teurlai M, Menkès CE, Cavarero V, Degallier N, Descloux E, Grangeon JP, et al. Socio-economic and climate factors associated with dengue fever spatial heterogeneity: a worked example in New Caledonia. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015;9(12):e0004211.
