Full childhood immunization coverage and incidence of vaccine preventable disease in Nigeria: a regression analysis

Obinna Orjingene, Ojo Olumuyiwa, Clara Oguji, Franco Apiyanteide, Jude Inegbeboh, David Audu, Khalilu Muhammed, Chidiebube T. Udah


Background: Childhood immunization contributes significantly in the reduction of cases of vaccine preventable diseases in children. DHIS2 data showed that only 60.59% of children under one were fully immunized in 2020. This implies that 39.41% did not receive all recommended vaccinations therefore at risk of contracting vaccine preventable diseases. This study therefore examined the effect of full immunization coverage on incidence of vaccine preventable diseases.

Methods: Full childhood immunization coverage and incidence of vaccine preventable disease was examined using simple linear regression model at 5% level of significance and 95% confidence interval. Measles new case for children under five was the dependent variable while children under one fully immunized was the independent variable. Data was retrieved from DHIS2 for the period 2017-2020.

Results: The study showed a negative relationship between full immunization coverage and incidence of under-five measles new cases. The study found that any unit increase in full immunization coverage would lead to decrease in measles cases by 6%.

Conclusions: Full immunization coverage is still low (below WHO target of 80%) despite effort by government and partners. This implies that a lot of children are at risk of contracting vaccine preventable diseases. In order to avert this risk, health authorities and partners should devise appropriate means of educating the populace on the importance of childhood immunization.


Immunization, Full immunization, Vaccine preventable diseases

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