The effect of rainfall on the spread of malaria in Indonesia

Faradiba Faradiba


Background: Indonesia's territory consists of a large number of islands stretching from Sabang to Merauke. This condition causes different levels of development between regions. The eastern region of Indonesia is relatively slow when compared to the western region. This has resulted in the eastern region being in pristine condition and filled with forests. The climate in eastern Indonesia tends to be humid, resulting in high development of the female Anopheles mosquito, the cause of malaria.

Methods: The use of the instrumental variable method is necessary, because the model has endogeneity problems. The data used in this study comes from the results of the 2018 Podes data and climate data.

Results: The results of this study indicate that rainfall affects the number of malaria incidents and has a positive impact on mortality due to malaria, with coefficients of 0.0000779 and 0.0000142, respectively.

Conclusions: Education is needed for the community to minimize malaria, which often occurs, generally in the Papua region. Through health promotion, it is hoped that the community will be able to live cleanly and healthily, as well as change their behavior in life, considering that the area is vulnerable to malaria.




Rainfall, Malaria, Instrumental variable

Full Text:



BPS. Statistik Potensi Desa 2018.; 2018.

Despommier DD, Gwadz RW, Hotez PJ. Parasitic Diseases. Springer Science & Business Media; 2012.

Sinden RE, Gilles HM. The malaria parasites. Essent Malariol. 2002;8:34.

Handayani I. Gambaran Kondisi Lingkungan Fisik Rumah Penderita Malaria Klinis di Kelurahan Matekko Kecamatan Gantarang Kabupaten Bulukumba Tahun 2012. Published online 2012.

Husin H. Analisis Faktor Risiko Kejadian Malaria di Puskesmas Sukamerindu Kecamatan Sungai Serut Kota Bengkulu Propinsi Bengkulu. Published online 2007.

Najera JA, Hempel J, Organization WH. The Burden of Malaria. Geneva: World Health Organization. 1996.

Schofield L, Mueller I. Clinical immunity to malaria. Curr Mol Med. 2006;6(2):205-21.

Doolan DL, Dobaño C, Baird JK. Acquired immunity to malaria. Clin Microbiol Rev. 2009;22(1):13-36.

Mohring F, Pretzel J, Jortzik E, Becker K. The redox systems of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax: comparison, in silico analyses and inhibitor studies. Curr Med Chem. 2014;21(15):1728-756.

Tadei WP, Dutary Thatcher B. Malaria vectors in the Brazilian Amazon: Anopheles of the subgenus Nyssorhynchus. Rev Inst Med Trop Sao Paulo. 2000;42(2):87-94.

Kenangalem E, Poespoprodjo JR, Douglas NM. Malaria morbidity and mortality following introduction of a universal policy of artemisinin-based treatment for malaria in Papua, Indonesia: A longitudinal surveillance study. PLoS Med. 2019;16(5):e1002815.

Yawan SF. Analisis Faktor Risiko Kejadian Malaria di Wilayah Kerja Puskesmas Bosnik Kecamatan Biak Timur Kabupaten Biak–Numfor Papua. Published online 2006.

Paaijmans KP, Read AF, Thomas MB. Understanding the link between malaria risk and climate. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2009;106(33):13844-3849.

Zhou G, Minakawa N, Githeko AK, Yan G. Association between climate variability and malaria epidemics in the East African highlands. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2004;101(8):2375-380.

Lou Y, Zhao X-Q. A climate-based malaria transmission model with structured vector population. SIAM J Appl Math. 2010;70(6):2023-044.

Paaijmans KP, Blanford S, Bell AS, Blanford JI, Read AF, Thomas MB. Influence of climate on malaria transmission depends on daily temperature variation. Proc Natl Acad Sci. 2010;107(34):15135-5139.

Wooldridge JM. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. Nelson Education. 2016.

Okuneye K, Gumel AB. Analysis of a temperature-and rainfall-dependent model for malaria transmission dynamics. Math Biosci. 2017;287:72-92.

Bomblies A. Modeling the role of rainfall patterns in seasonal malaria transmission. Clim Change. 2012;112(3):673-85.

Briët OJT, Vounatsou P, Gunawardena DM, Galappaththy GNL, Amerasinghe PH. Temporal correlation between malaria and rainfall in Sri Lanka. Malar J. 2008;7(1):1-14.

Kipruto EK, Ochieng AO, Anyona DN. Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya. Malar J. 2017;16(1):1-11.

Gwamaka M, Kurtis JD, Sorensen BE. Iron deficiency protects against severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria and death in young children. Clin Infect Dis. 2012;54(8):1137-144.

Greenwood BM, Bradley AK, Greenwood AM. Mortality and morbidity from malaria among children in a rural area of The Gambia, West Africa. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1987;81(3):478-86.

Ceesay SJ, Casals-Pascual C, Erskine J. Changes in malaria indices between 1999 and 2007 in The Gambia: a retrospective analysis. Lancet. 2008;372(9649):1545-554.