Estimating the impact of lockdown on COVID-19 cases in Pune, Maharashtra

Saurabh Mahajan, Pravin V. Kumar, Kumar Pushkar


Background: The COVID-19 pandemic commenced in China in December 2019 and has since become a major public health problem. To slow this down, countries went into lockdown with different levels of restrictions on movement and mandatory home confinement except for essential requirements and services. It effectively decelerated the pandemic by strengthening the healthcare system and thus averted lakhs of cases and saved thousands of lives. The aim of this study is to analyze statistically that the lockdown plays an important role in preventing COVID-19 and its impact on number of cases per day in Pune.

Methods: This record based descriptive study is conducted after secondary data analysis of number of new cases of COVID-19 per day from the period 27 Apr to 03 Sep 2020 in Pune. Crowdsourced line listing of COVID-19 cases in Pune was obtained from which is Govt portal of COVID data and freely accessible. The data was thus analyzed to calculate effective reproduction number (Reff), growth rate and doubling time.

Results: On plotting weekly reported number of COVID-19 cases, no specific impact of lockdown on COVID-19 cases in Pune were noticed. Reff when plotted on the timeline shows a decline post lockdown. Growth rate also shows a slight declining trend post lockdown.

Conclusions: The importance of lockdown has been quantitatively confirmed to be effective in combating the spread of COVID-19 cases, focus should be placed on its effective implementation by the masses.


COVID-19 cases, Lockdown, Reproductive number

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