Can we predict the duration of COVID-19 pandemic? an observational analysis

Bijoy Patra, Jharna Behura, Vivek Dewan, T. P. Yadav, Vikram Datta, Dheeraj Bahl


Background: Since the outbreak of 2019 novel corona virus pneumonia in the Wuhan city, China, the whole world has been ravaged by the pandemic of COVID-19. In this bleak scenario, China is witnessing the near cessation of the disease. The aim of the present study was to analyze the epidemiology curve of China and five other countries, and attempts to extrapolate these findings in the epidemiology curve of individual country to answer the question how long will the pandemic last on this globe.

Methods: For the current study data from six countries namely China, Germany, Italy, South Korea Singapore, and India were considered. The resources for data collection were WHO Situation reports for corona virus disease (COVID-19), and Worldometer statistics for corona. Data were entered in to excel sheet and analyzed.

Results: Data for total cases, active cases, death, recovery, inactive cases were analyzed for each country and construed in graphs. The epidemic curve of total cumulative cases in China can be observed to have four phases and the total duration of epidemic is around 24week±2 weeks. China is in last phase of the epidemic. In South Korea, Germany, Italy the epidemic curve of active and inactive cases has crossed each other and are in 3rd phase. India and Singapore are in phase 1.

Conclusions: Despite the multitude of variables of COVID-19, the glimmer of hope for the end of pandemic can be inferred from the analysis of China, South Korea, Italy and Germany and can be extrapolated for India and Singapore.


COVID-19, Pandemic, Reproduction number, SARS COV- n-2019

Full Text:



Lu H, Stratton CW, Tang YW. Outbreak of pneumonia of unknown aetiology in Wuhan China: the mystery and the miracle. J Med Viral. 2020;16:54-9.

Pneumonia of unknown cause - China: disease outbreak news. Geneva: World Health Organization. Available at: https:// www. who. int/ csr/don/05-january-2020-pneumonia-of-unkown-cause-china/en/. Accessed on 7 April 2020.

World Health Organization. Situation reports. Available at: https://

diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/ situation-reports/. Accessed on 3 May 2020.

Coronavirus outbreak. Available at https:// www. worldometers. info/coronavirus/. Accessed daily.

Wang C, Horby PW, Hayden FG, Gao GF. A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern. Lancet. 2020;6736(20):30185-9.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia emergency response epidemiology team. Vital surveillances: the epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19)-China, 2020. China CDC Weekly. 2020;2(8):113-22.

China’s CDC detects a large number of new coronaviruses in the South China seafood market in Wuhan. Available at: https:// www. xinhuanet. com/2020-01/27/c_1125504355.htm. Accessed on 20 February 2020.

Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med. 2020;54:44-9.

Callaway E. Time to use the p-word? Coronavirus enter dangerous new phase. Nature. 2020;579:12.

WHO Director-General’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19. Available at: https://www. who. int/ dg/ speeches/ detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---25-may-2020. Accessed on 11 March 2020.

Andrew AS, Luquero FJ. From China: hope and lessons for COVID-19 Control. Lancet Infect Disease. 2020;3099(20):30264-4.

Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Gilani NG. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. Available at: https:// www. imperial. Accessed on 7 April 2020.

Chen N,Zhou M,Dong X,et al.Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet 2020;395:507-13.

Report of the WHO-ChinaJointMissionon Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Available at: coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19- final-report.pdf. Accessed on 16 February 2020.

Zhang J, Litvinova M, Wang W. Evolving epidemiology and transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 outside Hubei province, China: a descriptive and modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2020;3099(20):30230-9.

Song JY, Yun JG, Noh JY. Covid-19 in South korea Challenges of Subclinical manifestations. NEJM. 2020;8:87-95.

Modellierung von Beispielszenarien der SARS-CoV-2-Epidemie 2020 in Deutschland. Available at: Accessed on 7 April 2020.

Remuzzi A, Remuzzi G. Covid-19 and Italy: what next? The Lancet. 2020;6736(20):30627-9.

Ansah JP, Matchar DB, Wei SLS. The effectiveness of public health intervention intervention against COVID-19: lessons from the Singapore. Experience Medrxiv. 2020;20:71-9.

Wu A, Peng Y, Huang B. Genome composition and di- vergence of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) originating in China. Cell Host Microb. 2020;27:325-8.

Chen Y, Qianyun L, Guo D. Emerging corona viruses: Genome structure, replication, and pathogenesis. J Med Virol. 2020;92:418-3.

Roujian L, Xiang Z, Juan L. Genomic Characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 corona virus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding. Lancet. 2020;6736(20):30251-8.

Zhou P, Yang X, Wang X. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature. 2020;1038:41586-20.

Zimmerman P, Curtis N. Coronavirus infections in children including COVID-19 an overview of the epidemiology clinical features diagnosis, treatment and prevention options in children. Pediatr Infect Dis J. 2020;39(5):355-68.

Wilde AH, Snijder EJ, Kikkert M, Hemert MJ. Host factors in coronavirus replication. Curr Topic Microbiol Immunol. 2018;419:1-42.

Li G, Fan Y, Lai Y, Han T, Li Z, Zhou P. Coronavirus infections and immune responses. J Med Virol. 2020;92:424-32.

Kampf G, Todt D, Pfaender S, Steinmann E. Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents. J Hosp Infect. 2020;6701(20):30046–3.

Doremalen NV, Bushmaker T, Morris DH. Aerosol and surface stability of SARS-CoV-2 as compared with SARS-CoV-1. N Engl J Med. 2020;382:1564-7.

Fauci AS, Paules CI, Marston HD. Coronavirus infection more than just the common cold. JAMA. 2020;323(8):707-8.

Chen J. Pathogenicity and transmissibility of 2019-nCoV a quick overview and comparison with other emerging viruses. Microbes Infect. 2020;4.

Chan JFW, Yuan S, Hang KK. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person -to- person transmission: a study of a family cluster. Lancet. 2020;395:514-23.

Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q. The incubation period of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from publicly reported confirmed cases: estimation and application. Ann Intern Med. 2020;7326:2-5.

Zou L, Ruan F, Huang M. SARS-CoV-2 viral load in upper respiratory specimens of infected patients. N Engl J Med. 2020;56:200-17.

Li Q, Guan X, Wu P. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020;56:200-13.