Time series analysis of dengue cases reporting to a tertiary care hospital

Authors

  • Ravindra S. Kembhavi Department of Community Medicine, Seth G S Medical College and KEM Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra
  • Saurabha U. S. Department of Community Medicine, Seth G S Medical College and KEM Hospital, Mumbai, Maharashtra

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20191844

Keywords:

Dengue, Time series, Forecast, Seasonal trend, Climate change

Abstract

Background: Dengue fever is a major public health problem, the concern is high as the disease is closely related to climate change.

Methods: This was a retrospective study, conducted for 1 year in a tertiary care hospital in the city of Mumbai. Data of Dengue cases and climate for the city of Mumbai between 2011 and 2015 were obtained. Data was analysed using SPSS- time series analysis and forecasting model.

Results: 33% cases belonged to the 21-30 years, proportion of men affected were more than women. A seasonal distribution of cases was observed. A strong correlation was noted between the total number of cases reported and (a) mean monthly rainfall and (b) number of days of rainfall. ARIMA model was used for forecasting.

Conclusions: The trend analysis along with forecasting model helps in being prepared for the year ahead.

 

References

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Published

2019-04-27

How to Cite

Kembhavi, R. S., & U. S., S. (2019). Time series analysis of dengue cases reporting to a tertiary care hospital. International Journal Of Community Medicine And Public Health, 6(5), 2200–2205. https://doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20191844

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Section

Original Research Articles