Advanced panel data models in examining the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on the number of deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa

Patrick Nelson Malakasuka; David Loiboo Kitumi; Maurice C. Y. Mbago

doi:10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20254020

Authors

Patrick Nelson Malakasuka Department of Statistics, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
David Loiboo Kitumi Department of Statistics, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Maurice C. Y. Mbago Department of Statistics, University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20254020

Keywords:

COVID-19, Fixed effect, Pooled OLS regression, Random effect, Vaccine

Abstract

Background: The invention of vaccines to fight COVID-19 pandemic has been a great technical triumph as the pandemic became a big challenge around the globe. This study aimed to examine the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on the number of deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods: The study employed advanced panel data model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 vaccine from January 2020 to December 2023. The models used are pooled OLS regression, fixed and random effect models. The control factors investigated along with vaccine are COVID-19 cases, number of people vaccinated, cardiovascular death rate, population density and GDP per capita.

Results: The data findings from pooled regression, fixed and random effect models gave R Square of 0.99229, 0.97607 and 0.98307 respectively. Also, the results gave the root mean square error of 2088.69, 22637.08, 13301.06 for pooled regression, fixed and random effect model respectively. The three models indicate that vaccination is the substantial answer in minimizing the number of COVID-19 deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Conclusions: The study found vaccine to be the most scientific strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a need for governments in Sub-Saharan Africa to invest more on vaccination programmes to safeguard people on the future pandemic eruption.

Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

References

Baressi Šegota S, Lorencin I, Anđelić N, Musulin J, Štifanić D, Glučina M, et al. Applying Regressive Machine Learning Techniques in Determination of COVID-19Vaccinated Patients’ Influence on the Number of Confirmed and Deceased Patients. Mathematics 2022;10(16):2925. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/math10162925

Chanda D, Hines JZ, Itoh M, Fwoloshi S, Minchella PA, Zyambo KD, et al. COVID-19Vaccine Effectiveness Against Progression to In-Hospital Mortality in Zambia, 2021–2022. Open Forum Infect Dis. 2022;9(9):469. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofac469

Chen YT. The Effect of Vaccination Rates on the Infection of COVID-19 under the Vaccination Rate below the Herd Immunity Threshold. Int J Env Res Publ Health. 2021;18(14):7491. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18147491

De Gier B, Van Asten L, Boere TM, Van Roon A, Van Roekel C, Pijpers J, et al. Effect of COVID-19vaccination on mortality by COVID-19 and on mortality by other causes, the Netherlands, January 2021–January 2022. Vaccine. 2023;41(31):4488–96. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2023.06.005

Setubi AF, Nakoya E, Tchougene AF, Fopokam XG. El impacto de la cobertura de la vacuna COVID-19 en el resultado de muertes en África, las diferencias subregionales y la necesidad de un esfuerzo renovado de varios niveles. Iberoamerican J Med. 2022;4(2):83-91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.53986/ibjm.2022.0015

Di Gennaro F, Pizzol D, Marotta C, Antunes M, Racalbuto V, Veronese N, et al. Coronavirus Diseases (COVID-19-19) Current Status and Future Perspectives: A Narrative Review. Int J Env Res Publ Health. 2020;17(8):2690. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082690

Didi Y, Walha A, Ben Halima M, Wali A. COVID-19Outbreak Forecasting Based on Vaccine Rates and Tweets Classification. Computational Int Neurosci. 2022;1:16. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/4535541

Govender K, Nyamaruze P, McKerrow N, Meyer-Weitz A, Cowden RG. COVID-19 vaccines for children and adolescents in Africa: Aligning our priorities to situational realities. BMJ Global Health. 2022;7(2):7839. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007839

Haider N, Hasan MN, Guitian J, Khan RA, McCoy D, Ntoumi F, et al. The disproportionate case–fatality ratio of COVID-19 between countries with the highest vaccination rates and the rest of the world. IJID Regions. 2023;6:159–66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijregi.2023.01.011

Hajirahimova MS, Aliyeva AS. Analyzing the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths in Azerbaijan using machine learning algorithm. Int J Educ Manag Eng. 2022;12:1-10. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5815/ijeme.2022.01.01

Jabłońska K, Aballéa S, Toumi M. The real-life impact of vaccination on COVID-19mortality in Europe and Israel. Public Health. 2021;198:230–7. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2021.07.037

Jassat W, Mudara C, Ozougwu L, Tempia S, Blumberg L, Davies MA, et al. Difference in mortality among individuals admitted to hospital with COVID-19during the first and second waves in South Africa: A cohort study. Lancet Global Health. 2021;9(9):1216–25. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.09.21253184

Kissling E, Hooiveld M, Sandonis Martín V, Martínez-Baz I, William N, Vilcu AM, et al. I-MOVE-COVID-19primary care study team. Vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in adults aged 65 years and older in primary care: I-MOVE-COVID-19 project, Europe, December 2020 to May 2021. Eurosurveillance. 2021; 26(29). DOI: https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.29.2100670

Kubheka BZ, Kabala T. COVID-19 Vaccine donations: Blessings and curses for Africa. J Global Health Econ Pol. 2022;2:67. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52872/001c.30735

Liu Y, Procter SR, Pearson CAB, Montero AM, Torres-Rueda S, Asfaw E, et al. Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 vaccination programme’s timing and speed on health benefits, cost-effectiveness and relative affordability in 27 African countries. BMC Med. 2023;21(1):85. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-02784-z

Mboussou F, Farham B, Nsasiirwe S, Atagbaza A, Oyaole D, Atuhebwe PL, et al. COVID-19Vaccination in the WHO African Region: Progress Made in 2022 and Factors Associated. Vaccines. 2023;11(5):1010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11051010

Moghadas SM, Vilches TN, Zhang K, Wells CR, Shoukat A, Singer BH, et al. The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19-19) Outbreaks in the United States. Clin Infect Dis. 2021;73(12):2257–64. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab079

Montcho Y, Nalwanga R, Azokpota P, Doumatè JT, Lokonon BE, Salako VK, et al. Assessing the Impact of Vaccination on the Dynamics of COVID-19 in Africa: A Mathematical Modeling Study. Vaccines. 2023;11(4):857. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11040857

Murewanhema G, Burukai TV, Chireka B, Kunonga E. Implementing national COVID-19vaccination programmes in sub-Saharan Africa- early lessons from Zimbabwe: A descriptive cross-sectional study. Pan African Medical J. 2021;40:4346. DOI: https://doi.org/10.11604/pamj.2021.40.180.30824

Nie R, Abdelrahman Z, Liu Z, Wang X. Evaluation of the role of vaccination in the COVID-19pandemic based on the data from the 50 U.S. States. Comput Struc Biotechnol J. 2022;20:4138–45. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csbj.2022.08.009

Ofori SK, Dankwa EA, Estrada EH, Hua X, Kimani TN, Wade CG, et al. COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Africa: A scoping review of the use of mathematical models to inform policy. Tropical Med Int Health. 2024;29(6):466–76. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/tmi.13994

Park MB, Lee J. The Role of Vaccination, Testing and Public Restriction Policies in COVID-19 Mortality and Incidence: Insights from Global Burden of Disease Regions. Arch Med Sci. 2024;2:587. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5114/aoms/191563

Roghani A. The Influence of COVID-19 Vaccination on Daily Cases, Hospitalization and Death Rate in Tennessee, United States: Case Study. JMIRx Med. 2021;2(3):29324. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2196/29324

Rustagi V, Bajaj M, Tanvi, Singh P, Aggarwal R, AlAjmi MF, et al. Analyzing the Effect of Vaccination Over COVID-19 Cases and Deaths in Asian Countries Using Machine Learning Models. Front Cell Infect Microbiol. 2022;11:806265. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fcimb.2021.806265

Selvaraj P, Wagner BG, Chao DL, Jackson ML, Breugelmans JG, Jackson N, et al. Rural prioritization may increase the impact of COVID-19vaccines in a representative COVAX AMC country setting due to ongoing internal migration: A modeling study. PLOS Global Publ Health. 2022;2(1):53. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000053

Sinumvayo JP, Munezero PC, Tope AT, Adeyemo RO, Bale MI, Mutsaka-Makuvaza MJ, et al. Vaccination and vaccine-preventable diseases in Africa. Scientific African. 2024;24:2199. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2024.e02199

Takasu N, Yamagata T. Distribution of COVID-19 Vaccines to 49 Sub-Saharan African Countries. 2022;40(1):83-111.

Watson OJ, Barnsley G, Toor J, Hogan AB, Winskill P, Ghani AC. Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: A mathematical modelling study. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022;22(9):1293–302. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00320-6

WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) situation report. 2020.