Time series analysis of chickenpox cases admitted in infectious disease hospital in a metropolitan city, Mumbai, India
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20242543Keywords:
Chickenpox, Time series analysis, Forecast, Seasonal trend, Climate changeAbstract
Background: Chickenpox is a major public health problem; the concern is high as the disease is closely related to climate change.
Methods: This was a retrospective study, conducted for 1 year in an infectious disease hospital in a metropolitan city. Data of chickenpox cases of Mumbai between 2009 to 2018 were obtained. Data was analysed using SPSS-time series analysis and forecasting model.
Results: 88% cases belonged to the 21-40 years, proportion of men affected were more than women. A seasonal distribution of cases was observed. Winter’s multiplicative model was used for forecasting.
Conclusions: The trend analysis along with forecasting model helps in being prepared for the year ahead.
References
World Health Organization. Varicella and herpes zoster vaccines: WHO position paper, June 2014. Weekly Epidemiological Record. 2014;89(25):265-87.
Gershon AA, Gershon MD. Varicella-zoster virus. Clin Virol. 2016;459-80.
Lal M. Public Health Signifi cance of Chickenpox in India. Int J Sci Stud. 2014;2(8):188-90.
Ojah S, Barani R, Sudhakar MK, Ramakrishnan SR, Srikanth P. Maculopapular rash presentation of febrile illness in an adult with Varicella zoster virus infection. Indian J Pathol Microbiol. 2016;59(3):422-4.
Anand T, Kishore J, Jena P, Ingle GK. Chickenpox in Delhi in 2013. J Adv Res Med. 2014;1(1):5-9.
Malakar M, Manjit C, Sibarani T, Susmita BR. Investigation of an outbreak of varicella in a village of Goalpara District, India. Int J Basic Clin Pharmacol. 2016;6(1):93.
Nanthakumar MP, Sood A, Ahmed M, Gupta J. Varicella Zoster in pregnancy. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol. 2021;258:283-7.
Ahn KH, Park YJ, Hong SC, Lee EH, Lee JS, Oh MJ, et al. Congenital varicella syndrome: a systematic review. J Obstet Gynaecol. 2016;36:563-6.
Weinbaum C. Varicella Pinkbook. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; 2015:353-376.
Cohen J, Breuer J. Chickenpox: treatment. BMJ Clin Evid. 2015;2015:0912.
Tunbridge AJ, Breuer J, Jeffery KJM, on behalf of the British Infection Society. Chickenpox in adults- clinical management. J Infect. 2008;57:95-102.
Saleh N, al Moghazy B. Seasonal variation and trend of chicken pox in the southern region of Saudi Arabia (2007-2012). J Egypt Public Health Assoc. 2014;89(3):143-7.
Skaf W, Tosayeva A, Várkonyi DT. Towards automatic forecasting: evaluation of time-series forecasting models for chickenpox cases estimation in Hungary. International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications 2022:1-10).
Critselis E, Nastos PT, Theodoridou K, Theodoridou M, Tsolia MN, Hadjichristodoulou C, et al. Time trends in pediatric hospitalizations for varicella infection are associated with climatic changes: a 22-year retrospective study in a tertiary Greek referral center. PloS One. 2012;7(12):e52016.
Panda M. Application of ARIMA and Holt-Winters forecasting model to predict the spreading of COVID-19 for India and its states. MedRxiv. 2020:2020-07.
